Capitol Calling
Missouri's irreverent and vital news source.
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The AP had an interesting article a few days ago about Republican skittishness about extending a tax cut on the payroll tax. That’s the tax that gets taken out of workers’ paychecks to go toward Social Security.
Needless to say, Democrats are jumping on the issue with both feet. U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-St. Louis City, held a conference call with Missouri Democratic Party chairwoman Susan Montee this morning. You can hear his remarks on the payroll tax issue in the above video.
By the way, Carnahan was asked [again] about his political plans for 2012. For full disclosure, I had to take another phone call when he apparently discussed this. But Eli Yokley managed to post about Carnahan’s statement. You can read Yokley’s blog post here.
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It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder.
Kinder - who was long thought to be the Republican standard-bearer for governor next year - has had to answer allegations from St. Louis bartender Tammy Chapman. In an article published in the Riverfront Times, Chapman among other things accused Kinder of being aggressive with her when she was a stripper at a Sauget club in the 1990s.
She also said that Kinder asked her to move into a condo paid for with campaign dollars when the ran into each other earlier this year at a St. Louis City bar.
In a round of media interviews last week, Kinder denied some of Chapman’s allegations. He did say that he visited the strip clubs east of the Mississippi River numerous times in the 1990s.
In any case, the controversy has caused at least one major donor to pull support from Kinder. And it’s caused national publications such as Hotline On Call and the Washington Post to question whether Kinder has any chance to become governor.
Here’s a snippet from a Washington Post blog post:
Yet [Kinder] has survived — for now — in part because of a strong Democratic governor and a weak field of other potential candidates. (Kinder has yet to formally announce his campaign but is expected to do so in September.)
Some Republicans are saying that Kinder will have to drop his ambitions sooner or later. A major donor withdrew his support last week; a Springfield GOP committeeman emailed local Republicans saying the party needed to find a new candidate.
But the state party is standing behind Kinder, and no primary challengers have emerged. Missouri Republicans pushed back forcefully on a Politico report that suggested GOP support for Kinder was faltering.
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This may not be the most surprising news of the day, but House Speaker Steve Tilley is officially in for the 2012 Lt. Governor’s race.
Tilley, R-Perryville, went on several St. Louis radio stations to make the announcement. He also talked with Jo Mannies of the St. Louis Beacon about parts of his platform.
Until last year, House Speakers had a tough time winning election to other offices. Steve Gaw failed to become Secretary of State or win a congressional seat, Jim Kreider fell short of snagging a Missouri Senate seat and Catherine Hanaway lost a bid to become secretary of state.
That “curse” was broken, so to speak, when then-House Speaker Ron Richard won election to a Joplin state Senate seat. He ran unopposed.
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Gov. Jay Nixon defended vetoing legislation pushing back next year’s presidential primary to March. Nixon objected to two other aspects of the legislation.
You can see Nixon’s response to reporters questions by clicking on the above video.
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As first noted by Eli Yokley, state Treasurer Clint Zweifel effectively launched his 2012 re-election bid this week. The above video appears on the Democratic statewide official’s election Web site and was uploaded to YouTube yesterday.
No Republican has announced that they are going to run against Zweifel. And while it is unlikely Zweifel will run unopposed, it’s not exactly an easy task to dislodge an incumbent state treasurer.
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I know this isn’t related to Missouri politics, but whenever I hear about Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels running for president, I can’t help but remember this ad.
The ad was notable because it featured Daniels saying explicitly that his re-election bid would be his last campaign. While I understand that presidential contenders are coy with their intentions and this ad probably isn’t a deal-breaker in the long run, I wonder how somebody can back away from such stark claims.
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The Associated Press reports that Gov. Jay Nixon nearly doubled up Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder - his potential rival in the 2012 gubernatorial race - in fundraising.
Nixon ended up raising about $1.7 million and has a little over $2 million of cash on hand. Kinder raised roughly $770,000 and has over $900,000 of cash on hand.
“The early financial support is critical, but the real reason that Jay Nixon is in a strong position to be re-elected is the tough and effective leadership he’s shown as governor during these challenging times,” said Oren Shur, who is Nixon’s campaign manager.
Kinder campaign attorney Jared Craighead said Kinder’s fundraising has been strong. He noted that the lieutenant governor also has made significant donations to other Republican candidates.
“The report demonstrates the strong support for the lieutenant governor and that whatever he chooses to do in the future, he is going to be successful and have the resources he needs to be successful,” Craighead said.
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It’s not certain which district U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-St. Louis City, will run in next year or what the battlefield will look like. But the Democratic lawmaker seems to be serious about fighting for his job.
Carnahan’s campaign sent out an e-mail today stating he raised roughly $330,000 in the last fundraising quarter. He has almost $286,000 of cash on hand, according to a press release.
“Russ Carnahan is serious about another run for Congress,” said Carnahan spokeswoman Sara Howard in a statement. “More than ever before, Missouri families and businesses need someone who will fight for them in Congress. Whether pushing for better jobs for Missouri or holding off attacks on Social Security and Medicare, Russ Carnahan has always been a strong voice for Missouri - and he is ready to continue that work as U.S. Representative.”
If either a Senate or House map becomes law, Carnahan’s residence would be in U.S. Rep. Lacy Clay’s district. But it’s possible Carnahan could run in a reconfigured 2nd District, which in both maps include parts of St. Louis County, St. Charles County and Jefferson County.
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It looks like President Barack Obama won’t be taking the Lyndon Johnson route to re-election.
In other words, the 2012 is on.
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Missouri may once again be home to the center of the United States. But does that mean it’ll be the center of the presidential universe next year?
That depends.
Generally speaking, Missouri’s demographic makeup tends to translate into close elections for U.S. Senate, statewide offices and, yes, the presidency. Such an event occurred in 2008 when Barack Obama and John McCain battled it out for the Show Me State’s 11 electoral votes. The result was uber-close – only a few thousand votes put McCain over Obama. And that sort of result would seem to bolster Missouri’s status as a sought-after electoral jewel.
But even though the 2008 election showcased how Missouri could produce competitive elections, the outcome’s significance left a lot to be desired. That’s because the then-Illinois senator surprisingly won states such as North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana, as well as traditional battlegrounds such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. To put it bluntly, Missouri made no difference whatsoever in Obama’s path to victory.
Whether Missouri is relevant next year is predicated on a whole bunch of ‘what ifs.’ Those include, but are not limited to, the economy, Obama’s popularity and the appeal of GOP’s candidate. But from running a number of scenarios, it’s not that likely Missouri will be decisive in the outcome.
Let’s take a look at the maps:
EXAMPLE #1: First of all, if the Republican candidate isn’t competitive in North Carolina, Indiana or Virginia, then their chances of beating Obama is are almost zero since they are probably losing Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida as well. But let’s say they do bring those states to the fold. The GOP candidate would still lose in a relative landslide. As in 2008, Missouri’s 10 electoral votes would make no difference in the outcome of the election.
EXAMPLE #2: But let’s say the economy is glum, Obama is unpopular and the GOP candidate is setting the world on fire. And let’s also imagine that the Republicans win every state President George W. Bush took in 2004 except Missouri. The Republican candidate would still prevail with 282 electoral votes. Again, Missouri makes no difference in the election.
EXAMPLE #3: Let’s say the 2012 election is a bit more muddled. The Republican candidate wins North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Ohio and Florida, but loses Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada. As the above map shows, Obama would win the re-election. And Missouri still would not be pivotal to the outcome.
EXAMPLE #4: Now let’s say that above maps stays the same except for two changes: Obama wins Missouri and loses Pennsylvania. The Keystone State would be the bigger factor in ushering Obama out the door than the Show Me State.
EXAMPLE #5: Want to see a scenario where Missouri’s votes actually do matter? The above map is a scenario where Obama wins Missouri, Iowa, Nevada and one of Nebraska’s electoral votes, while Republicans win Colorado and New Mexico. The result? A 269-269 tie. Hope America is ready for a Trump-Biden administration.
There are simply too many variables to put Missouri in, say, Idaho or Rhode Island’s league of irrelevancy. But is the Show Me State a pivotal battleground? At this point in time, not likely. But of course, it’s only March 2011 and a lot can happen between now and November 2012.
Even if Missouri once again plays a less-than-desirable role in electing a president, the presidential race could affect local contests. If Democrats, for instance, decide to pour a lot of money and organizational support to win the state for Obama, that could make a big difference in the re-election bids for Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and Gov. Jay Nixon. A decision to withhold resources could strengthen the hand of Republicans running against the two incumbents.
And if both parties pour money in? Expect some very competitive statewide races next year.
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Considering she only won in 2006 by a small margin in what was considered a very Democratic year, it isn’t all that surprising that Sen. Claire McCaskill’s bid for a second term would be pegged by observers as competitive.
But today, Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report also moved the race into the ‘toss-up’ category. From the campaign prognostication’s Web site:
There has never been any doubt that Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill would have a difficult race in her bid for a second term. She is running in a politically marginal state in year in which President Obama, who is not popular in Missouri, will lead the Democratic ticket. Over the past two weeks, McCaskill’s road to re-election has hit some turbulence largely of her own making that has only served to render the already vulnerable incumbent even more vulnerable, despite not knowing who her Republican challenger will be. McCaskill’s path to re-election has become bumpy enough to warrant a rating change from Lean Democratic to Toss Up.
It’s worth noting that Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, another political prognostication conduit, listed McCaskill’s bid for re-election as a toss-up earlier this month.
McCaskill’s re-election bid is one of seven Democratic races that the Cook Political Report views as the toss-up. It also lists two Republican races as toss-ups as well.
